Miami Marlins 2015 Season Preview

This is one of a series of posts in which I will be breaking down every team in baseball. I am by no means a credible source—merely a casual fan who knows a little about baseball and would like to share my observations.

Today we look at the Marlins, whose strong young core has many optimistic fans talking about contention. But I’m here to squash those talks and tell you why it’ll be at least another year until the Marlins are seriously in the playoff discussion.

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Projected Lineup: 2B Dee Gordon*, LF Christian Yelich, RF Giancarlo Stanton, 1B Michael Morse*, 3B Martin Prado*, CF Marcell Ozuna, C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, SS Adeiny Hechavarria

Projected Rotation: RHP Mat Latos*, RHP Henderson Alvarez, RHP Jarred Cosart, RHP Dan Haren*, RHP Tom Koehler

* new additions

Jeffrey Loria must have lost in his fantasy league last year to the guy who owned Dee Gordon, because I can think of no other explanation for the Marlins’ ridiculous push to get him this offseason.

His speed is legit, but Gordon owns only a career .314 on-base percentage, a far lower mark than you’d want from your leadoff batter. He also gets thrown out on the bases a lot. With the Marlins, he’s going to need to learn how to be a cog in the machine—doing things like getting on base for the hitters behind him, going first to third, and generally being the facilitator rather than the star.

If that means cutting back on his fantasy stats, then so be it. Sorry Loria, you’ll have to get your steals elsewhere.

Gordon is part of a revamped infield for the Marlins, joining fellow new acquisitions Michael Morse and Martin Prado. These three guys have never played together on a diamond before, so it’ll be interesting to see how the defense meshes. But defense or not, these guys will hit.

Morse has a ton of raw power, which is important for this offense. Even though he might not hit as many homers in his spacious new home ballpark, it’s more about the threat of power than the actual results. His presence will give Giancarlo Stanton some much-needed protection in the lineup. Last season, batters hitting after Stanton hit a combined six homers, and Morse can certainly improve on that mark.

With other guys like Marcell Ozuna, who had a breakout season last year, and even a bit of outfield depth with Ichiro, the Marlins’ offense is in good shape.

The question will be whether the pitching can hold up.

In the rotation, the only thing on anyone’s mind will be Jose Fernandez’ rehab, and the chances of seeing him in uniform this season. Current estimates say he’ll return to the mound sometime this summer, but my word of advice would be not to hold your breath for anything. He’ll probably pitch in a few games, but he’ll be on a strict pitch count, and by that point in the season the Marlins will probably be well out of contention. Fernandez will eventually be the shutdown pitcher he once was, but it won’t be this year.

So let’s take a look at the guys who actually will be taking the hill for the Marlins.

You’ll notice the guys in the rotation all have one thing in common—they’re all right-handed. The Marlins traded away their only decent lefty starter, Andrew Heaney, in the Dee Gordon deal. But it’s ok—it’s not like lefties are valuable in the NL East because the division is loaded with left-handed power hitters or anything. Guys with names like Harper, Duda, Freeman, Markakis, Granderson, Howard and Utley probably won’t be a problem.

When they’re not getting pummeled by lefties, the rotation could show glimpses of success. Mat Latos will hold down the top spot while Fernandez rehabilitates, and he has become one of the more consistent starters in the league, posting an ERA below 3.50 every full year he’s had in the majors. Henderson Alvarez has become a solid #2 starter, with a league-leading three shutouts and an All-Star selection last year to add to his resume.

Steve Cishek is also the best closer in baseball that no one knows about. He pitched to a career-best 2.17 FIP last season, while increasing his strikeout rate to a remarkable 11.6 per nine innings. Look for him to do big things this year.

Overall, it’s pretty obvious that it isn’t the Marlins’ year, but I don’t think they’re in any hurry for it to be. All their core players are signed to multi-year deals, so they’re just lining things up for when Fernandez can come back in full force. And when that day comes, watch out.

Projected Finish: 75-87, Fourth place in AL East

San Francisco Giants 2014 Season Preview

This is one of a series of posts in which I will be breaking down every team in the National League. I am by no means a credible source—merely a casual fan who knows a little about baseball and would like to share my observations.

Today we look at the Giants, who still boast the same pitching rotation that won two World Championships, and they’re ready to bring that trophy back to San Francisco.

Projected Lineup: CF Angel Pagan, 2B Marco Scutaro, 1B Brandon Belt, C Buster Posey, RF Hunter Pence, 3B Pablo Sandoval, LF Michael Morse, SS Brandon Crawford

The Giants’ disappointing 2013 season reached a low point when a quiet October culminated with Kim and Kanye’s engagement ceremony at AT&T Park. Such a violation of the field should give the Giants extra incentive to ensure the only ceremony taking place this October will be of the World Championship variety.

The key player that hinges on is Brandon Belt. Belt reportedly made a change to his grip in the batter’s box in early August, lining his knuckles up on the bat. It sounds like a pointer you’d get from your little league coach, but nevertheless, Belt responded, hitting .346/.408/.576 in August and September. Manager Bruce Bochy rewarded Belt by elevating him to the third spot in the lineup. That comes with added responsibility, however. Belt now needs to be “the dude” in this lineup. Sorry, I’m using very technical baseball terms here—by “dude”, I mean the guy you want at the plate in a critical spot, feared by pitchers throughout the league because of his ability to come through in big situations.

Now, I’m not necessarily talking about home runs. Belt’s value has always been greatest when he’s getting on base, ever more important now that he’s hitting ahead of Posey, Pence, and the rest of the power hitters. Belt’s career-high for drawing walks in a season is just 54, but he’s absolutely capable of reaching 80 or 90. If he does, that’ll be what keeps the line moving in the Giants’ lineup.

A winning team also needs a spark plug. That’s the guy who starts rallies by becoming a presence on the basepaths, getting into the heads of opposing pitchers. And that role on the Giants belongs to Angel Pagan. The Giants were 39-32 last year in games in which he played, and 37-54 when he didn’t. Talk about a crucial piece of the puzzle.

The Giants also added Michael Morse, addressing their subpar left field situation. Morse will be a great fit for San Francisco because of his raw power, something the Giants have severely lacked in recent years. Along with Hunter Pence, it also gives the Giants the ultimate one-two punch of ridiculous on-deck circle routines.

The pitching staff remains a strength for the team, despite the recent struggles of ace Matt Cain and former ace Tim Lincecum. Lincecum is still struggling to find a rhythm after the perils of aging took hold of his velocity about two years ago. The good news for Lincecum comes in the form of Tim Hudson, the new member of the staff. Hudson is a veteran with the same body type as Lincecum, who has learned to pitch effectively with limited velocity, and who can hopefully help Lincecum find a little consistency. Lincecum doesn’t need to throw a no-hitter every night, but avoiding the early-game implosions and throwing a solid six innings every time out could be within his reach.

With the ever-consistent Madison Bumgarner anchoring the staff, the Giants’ rotation can tolerate a few rough outings here and there, and still vie for the division.

Projected Finish: 89-73, First place in NL West