San Francisco Giants 2015 Season Preview

This is one of a series of posts in which I will be breaking down every team in baseball. I am by no means a credible source—merely a casual fan who knows a little about baseball and would like to share my observations.

Today we look at the defending World Champion Giants, who despite very few roster changes since a year ago, are being picked by almost no one to repeat as champions. But that’s okay—this team seems to thrive on being the underdog.

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Projected Lineup: LF Nori Aoki*, RF Hunter Pence, 1B Brandon Belt, C Buster Posey, CF Angel Pagan, 3B Casey McGehee*, 2B Joe Panik, SS Brandon Crawford

Projected Rotation: LHP Madison Bumgarner, RHP Matt Cain, RHP Tim Lincecum, RHP Tim Hudson, RHP Jake Peavy

* new additions

In last year’s World Series, Madison Bumgarner dominated on the mound, Joe Panik made highlight-reel plays on defense, and Hunter Pence batted over .400.

But people forget that for most of the season, the Giants were not a great team. And with almost all the same cast returning for another season, it figures that they still won’t be a great team.

Let’s start with the rotation.

Outside of Bumgarner, you don’t know what to expect from anyone. An optimistic outlook would be that Matt Cain comes back strong after elbow and ankle surgery, and Tim Lincecum throws a couple more no-hitters. But that’s a best-case scenario.

What’s more likely is that it takes a whole squad of guys to get through the season. That’s why the Giants gave new contracts to departing free agents Ryan Vogelsong and Jake Peavy—for reinforcements. As the dog days of the season wear on, the older guys might need some extra rest, or someone may get injured as a result of standing too close to Jeremy Affeldt. Any number of things could happen that would require the Giants to dig a little deeper for starters. Watch for super-reliever Yusmeiro Petit to even make a few starts, and possibly lock down a rotation spot if the other guys aren’t pulling their weight.

At the start of the offseason, the world was concerned that the Giants wouldn’t have enough power in their lineup. The Giants gave zero fucks about what the world thought.

They replaced the departed Michael Morse with his physical polar opposite in Nori Aoki. They replaced Pablo Sandoval with Casey McGehee, who hit as many homers last year as Madison Bumgarner.

Essentially, they’re an offense built on speed, little dinky base hits, and the occasional Buster Posey bomb.

But is that really a bad thing?

What the Giants have upgraded is their on-base ability. McGehee is good at drawing walks, having posted a .355 on-base percentage last season with Miami. Aoki was just as proficient with Kansas City, sporting a .349 on-base clip. On last year’s Giants, those numbers would have ranked 2nd and 3rd on the team, behind only Posey. Now they join other pesky pitch-takers on this team like Gregor Blanco and Brandon Belt, forming an epic lineup of guys who take walks.

How well might that work out? Just ask that “Moneyball” team that played across the bay in the early 2000’s.

The Giants aren’t a great team. But they don’t seem to mind being the underdogs. In their recent run of championships, there hasn’t been a single postseason series in which they’ve been viewed as the odds-on favorites, yet they’ve emerged with three titles.

Maybe the key to success in this crazy game is to be a not-great team. I can’t pretend to know the formula. All I know is that the Giants seem to have mastered it as much as anyone ever has.

Projected Finish: 84-78, Second place in NL West, Wildcard berth

San Francisco Giants 2014 Season Preview

This is one of a series of posts in which I will be breaking down every team in the National League. I am by no means a credible source—merely a casual fan who knows a little about baseball and would like to share my observations.

Today we look at the Giants, who still boast the same pitching rotation that won two World Championships, and they’re ready to bring that trophy back to San Francisco.

Projected Lineup: CF Angel Pagan, 2B Marco Scutaro, 1B Brandon Belt, C Buster Posey, RF Hunter Pence, 3B Pablo Sandoval, LF Michael Morse, SS Brandon Crawford

The Giants’ disappointing 2013 season reached a low point when a quiet October culminated with Kim and Kanye’s engagement ceremony at AT&T Park. Such a violation of the field should give the Giants extra incentive to ensure the only ceremony taking place this October will be of the World Championship variety.

The key player that hinges on is Brandon Belt. Belt reportedly made a change to his grip in the batter’s box in early August, lining his knuckles up on the bat. It sounds like a pointer you’d get from your little league coach, but nevertheless, Belt responded, hitting .346/.408/.576 in August and September. Manager Bruce Bochy rewarded Belt by elevating him to the third spot in the lineup. That comes with added responsibility, however. Belt now needs to be “the dude” in this lineup. Sorry, I’m using very technical baseball terms here—by “dude”, I mean the guy you want at the plate in a critical spot, feared by pitchers throughout the league because of his ability to come through in big situations.

Now, I’m not necessarily talking about home runs. Belt’s value has always been greatest when he’s getting on base, ever more important now that he’s hitting ahead of Posey, Pence, and the rest of the power hitters. Belt’s career-high for drawing walks in a season is just 54, but he’s absolutely capable of reaching 80 or 90. If he does, that’ll be what keeps the line moving in the Giants’ lineup.

A winning team also needs a spark plug. That’s the guy who starts rallies by becoming a presence on the basepaths, getting into the heads of opposing pitchers. And that role on the Giants belongs to Angel Pagan. The Giants were 39-32 last year in games in which he played, and 37-54 when he didn’t. Talk about a crucial piece of the puzzle.

The Giants also added Michael Morse, addressing their subpar left field situation. Morse will be a great fit for San Francisco because of his raw power, something the Giants have severely lacked in recent years. Along with Hunter Pence, it also gives the Giants the ultimate one-two punch of ridiculous on-deck circle routines.

The pitching staff remains a strength for the team, despite the recent struggles of ace Matt Cain and former ace Tim Lincecum. Lincecum is still struggling to find a rhythm after the perils of aging took hold of his velocity about two years ago. The good news for Lincecum comes in the form of Tim Hudson, the new member of the staff. Hudson is a veteran with the same body type as Lincecum, who has learned to pitch effectively with limited velocity, and who can hopefully help Lincecum find a little consistency. Lincecum doesn’t need to throw a no-hitter every night, but avoiding the early-game implosions and throwing a solid six innings every time out could be within his reach.

With the ever-consistent Madison Bumgarner anchoring the staff, the Giants’ rotation can tolerate a few rough outings here and there, and still vie for the division.

Projected Finish: 89-73, First place in NL West