Miami Marlins 2015 Season Preview

This is one of a series of posts in which I will be breaking down every team in baseball. I am by no means a credible source—merely a casual fan who knows a little about baseball and would like to share my observations.

Today we look at the Marlins, whose strong young core has many optimistic fans talking about contention. But I’m here to squash those talks and tell you why it’ll be at least another year until the Marlins are seriously in the playoff discussion.

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Projected Lineup: 2B Dee Gordon*, LF Christian Yelich, RF Giancarlo Stanton, 1B Michael Morse*, 3B Martin Prado*, CF Marcell Ozuna, C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, SS Adeiny Hechavarria

Projected Rotation: RHP Mat Latos*, RHP Henderson Alvarez, RHP Jarred Cosart, RHP Dan Haren*, RHP Tom Koehler

* new additions

Jeffrey Loria must have lost in his fantasy league last year to the guy who owned Dee Gordon, because I can think of no other explanation for the Marlins’ ridiculous push to get him this offseason.

His speed is legit, but Gordon owns only a career .314 on-base percentage, a far lower mark than you’d want from your leadoff batter. He also gets thrown out on the bases a lot. With the Marlins, he’s going to need to learn how to be a cog in the machine—doing things like getting on base for the hitters behind him, going first to third, and generally being the facilitator rather than the star.

If that means cutting back on his fantasy stats, then so be it. Sorry Loria, you’ll have to get your steals elsewhere.

Gordon is part of a revamped infield for the Marlins, joining fellow new acquisitions Michael Morse and Martin Prado. These three guys have never played together on a diamond before, so it’ll be interesting to see how the defense meshes. But defense or not, these guys will hit.

Morse has a ton of raw power, which is important for this offense. Even though he might not hit as many homers in his spacious new home ballpark, it’s more about the threat of power than the actual results. His presence will give Giancarlo Stanton some much-needed protection in the lineup. Last season, batters hitting after Stanton hit a combined six homers, and Morse can certainly improve on that mark.

With other guys like Marcell Ozuna, who had a breakout season last year, and even a bit of outfield depth with Ichiro, the Marlins’ offense is in good shape.

The question will be whether the pitching can hold up.

In the rotation, the only thing on anyone’s mind will be Jose Fernandez’ rehab, and the chances of seeing him in uniform this season. Current estimates say he’ll return to the mound sometime this summer, but my word of advice would be not to hold your breath for anything. He’ll probably pitch in a few games, but he’ll be on a strict pitch count, and by that point in the season the Marlins will probably be well out of contention. Fernandez will eventually be the shutdown pitcher he once was, but it won’t be this year.

So let’s take a look at the guys who actually will be taking the hill for the Marlins.

You’ll notice the guys in the rotation all have one thing in common—they’re all right-handed. The Marlins traded away their only decent lefty starter, Andrew Heaney, in the Dee Gordon deal. But it’s ok—it’s not like lefties are valuable in the NL East because the division is loaded with left-handed power hitters or anything. Guys with names like Harper, Duda, Freeman, Markakis, Granderson, Howard and Utley probably won’t be a problem.

When they’re not getting pummeled by lefties, the rotation could show glimpses of success. Mat Latos will hold down the top spot while Fernandez rehabilitates, and he has become one of the more consistent starters in the league, posting an ERA below 3.50 every full year he’s had in the majors. Henderson Alvarez has become a solid #2 starter, with a league-leading three shutouts and an All-Star selection last year to add to his resume.

Steve Cishek is also the best closer in baseball that no one knows about. He pitched to a career-best 2.17 FIP last season, while increasing his strikeout rate to a remarkable 11.6 per nine innings. Look for him to do big things this year.

Overall, it’s pretty obvious that it isn’t the Marlins’ year, but I don’t think they’re in any hurry for it to be. All their core players are signed to multi-year deals, so they’re just lining things up for when Fernandez can come back in full force. And when that day comes, watch out.

Projected Finish: 75-87, Fourth place in AL East

Boston Red Sox 2015 Season Preview

This is one of a series of posts in which I will be breaking down every team in baseball. I am by no means a credible source—merely a casual fan who knows a little about baseball and would like to share my observations.

Today we look at the Red Sox, who last season fell victim to the “championship hangover”, one of the enduring mysteries of the game. Can they reclaim their spot at the top?

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Projected Lineup: CF Mookie Betts, 2B Dustin Pedroia, DH David Ortiz, LF Hanley Ramirez*, 3B Pablo Sandoval*, 1B Mike Napoli, RF Shane Victorino, SS Xander Bogaerts, C Christian Vazquez

Projected Rotation: RHP Clay Buchholz, RHP Rick Porcello*, LHP Wade Miley*, RHP Justin Masterson*, RHP Joe Kelly

* new additions

The champions of two years ago finished 71-91 last season, and without any major injuries to blame for the decline, we’re left to wonder why they choked.

What happened?

No one knows. The front office couldn’t even figure it out. So their plan this offseason was basically to sign free agents at random in the hope that some of them work out.

That’s why they brought in Hanley Ramirez, about whom general manager Ben Cherington was super excited, until one of his annoying little office aides reminded him that the Red Sox already had a shortstop.

“Oops,” said Cherington, and thus it was decided that Ramirez would play left field.

It remains to be seen how Ramirez will fare defensively, but at the plate, he looks like a different guy. He bulked up over the winter—by his admission, he gained 25 pounds of muscle. He won’t steal as many bases this year, but the Red Sox aren’t paying him to steal. They just want him to hit dingers over the Green Monster, which he’ll do plenty.

The Sox also added Pablo Sandoval, a proven winner in October who is expected to bring veteran leadership and a bat that can go to all fields. He’ll do well hitting in Fenway Park’s funky dimensions.

There are a few concerns as well. One guy who needs who step up more is Dustin Pedroia. Thumb injuries have bothered him for the past two seasons, and the effect was noticeable: in those two years, Pedroia put up a collective .752 OPS with just 16 homers. He may not be the same player as when he won MVP as a 25-year-old, but as the catalyst in this lineup, he needs to be that guy that sparks rallies. This means more walks, more extra base hits, and more of just generally being a nuisance on the basepaths. You know, the things Pedey does best.

But the aspect that has most fans worried is the pitching.

First of all, the starting rotation lacks a true ace. In fact, it also lacks a #2 starter. That’s because the Red Sox rotation is somehow made up entirely of #3 starters.

In some ways, it’s not a bad thing. One benefit is that the rotation has depth, because even though they’re all just average pitchers, they’re Major League caliber average pitchers.

They’re also all experienced. The shortest-tenured member of the starting five, Joe Kelly, has still logged 327 Major League innings, which is more than four-fifths of the current A’s rotation.

And though some may call these guys veterans, they’re not old. Rick Porcello is still just 26, and coming off the best season of his career. Wade Miley is 28 and the portrait of health, never having spent a single day on the disabled list in his career.

And then there’s Clay Buchholz. The Red Sox are still trying to figure out what he is. He was by far the worst qualifying pitcher in baseball last year in terms of ERA, with a mark of 5.34. Yet some days, he was flat out unhittable, and he somehow found time to throw two complete game shutouts in the midst of his terrible season.

So is Buchholz great, or is he awful?

Looking deeper, it appears that the primary cause of his inflated ERA was his performance with runners in scoring position. In those situations, batters hit .363/.422/.510 against Buchholz, or to put it another way, batters (.932 OPS) basically turned into Mike Trout (.939 OPS). This is in sharp contrast to how Buchholz performed with the bases empty, when he was actually pretty good, allowing a slash line of just .236/.301/.382.

Something happens to Buchholz in those high-pressure situations that cause him to become a different pitcher. He needs to sort out whatever’s going on inside his head, because the Red Sox can’t afford to let him pitch if all he’s going to do is blow up in the most pivotal moments.

The bullpen is in rough shape to start the year, with closer Koji Uehara on the shelf with a strained hamstring. He should recover quickly enough, but he’ll also be 40 years old this season. As the guys on my co-ed softball team will tell you, injuries when you’re 40 take a bit longer to recover from.

His replacement in the ninth inning will be Edward Mujica, who has bounced around a lot in his career, but does have closing experience. This isn’t ideal for the long-term, as removing Mujica from his traditional role of set-up man thins out the rest of the ‘pen.

Another option for the Red Sox might be to not tell anyone that Uehara is hurt, sneak Junichi Tazawa in there in the ninth and hope no one notices the difference.

The Red Sox will hit this year, but the pitching won’t quite be enough to keep them in games. Look for this to be a year of growth as they give playing time to their many notable young prospects.

Projected Finish: 73-89, Fourth place in AL East

Tampa Bay Rays 2015 Season Preview

This is one of a series of posts in which I will be breaking down every team in baseball. I am by no means a credible source—merely a casual fan who knows a little about baseball and would like to share my observations.

Today we look at the Rays, who are ushering in the post-Joe Maddon era with first-year manager Kevin Cash. Maddon was great at a lot of things, but maybe it’ll be a welcome respite for the players to not have to deal with wild animals and Mariachi bands in the clubhouse every other day.

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Projected Lineup: LF Desmond Jennings, DH John Jaso*, SS Asdrubal Cabrera*, 3B Evan Longoria, 1B James Loney, RF Steven Souza*, CF Kevin Kiermaier, C Rene Rivera*, 2B Nick Franklin

Projected Rotation: RHP Alex Cobb, RHP Chris Archer, RHP Jake Odorizzi, LHP Drew Smyly, RHP Alex Colomé

* new additions

The Rays said goodbye to a lot of old faces this winter, and lost a bit of their soul in the process.

Joe Maddon, the fearless leader who brought this franchise out of the dark ages: gone. Ben Zobrist, consummate grinder and the most consistently productive Rays player for the past decade: gone.

Who are the Rays without those two guys?

The answer, at least for the immediate future, is not very good.

The offseason flowchart for any small market team starts with the question: Can we compete? If the answer is no, the mission is to get younger. The younger a team can get, the better chance they’ll have at competing a few years down the road.

The Rays’ window closed as soon as they traded David Price away last July. With that setting the rebuild in motion, it was time to clean house. A flurry of trades this winter added substantial depth, though it may not be apparent on the field immediately. Guys like shortstop Daniel Robertson, though you won’t see him in the big leagues this season, are expected to be a big part of the Rays’ future success.

But one guy you will see is Steven Souza, who is already famous for making the diving catch that clinched Jordan Zimmermann’s no-hitter for the Nationals last season. As a major part of the big three-team trade that sent Wil Myers to San Diego, Souza is out to prove he does more than make amazing diving catches (not that the Rays are complaining).

The Rays would gladly take a season like the one Souza enjoyed in Triple-A last year. He won International League MVP as well as Rookie of the Year honors, slashing an outstanding .350/432/.590 with 18 homers and 26 stolen bases. Look for Souza to see a lot of playing time, as he’s one of the guys around whom the Rays will be building.

The Rays’ pitching is in shambles, but only temporarily. Starters Alex Cobb, Alex Colomé and Drew Smyly, as well as closer Jake McGee are all injured to start the season, so the rest of the staff will be stretched very thin.

The good news is that they’re all expected to be back by the end of April, so the Rays will only have to survive a month of digging into the depths of their organization for pitching help.

One guy who will get a few starts in the interim is Nate Karns, one of the organization’s top prospects who until now was expected to be a bullpen arm. But he’s been starting this spring, and has been lights out, posting a 2.03 ERA in four starts. If he can pitch that well in the regular season, I’m not sure if the organization will let him go back to bullpen.

The bullpen appears pretty solid, with Brad Boxberger and newcomer Kevin Jepsen headlining the late innings. Both are dominant right-handers who can keep runs off the board while racking up the K’s.

The righty-heavy corps will be missing injured lefty closer Jake McGee until late April or early May, when he is expected to return to his ninth inning role.

It will be a year of non-contention for the Rays as they take the opportunity to get a good look at their young talent. In a few years, it’ll be up to these guys to usher in a new era of successful Rays teams.

Projected Finish: 70-92, Fifth place in AL East

Minnesota Twins 2015 Season Preview

This is one of a series of posts in which I will be breaking down every team in baseball. I am by no means a credible source—merely a casual fan who knows a little about baseball and would like to share my observations.

Today we look at the Twins, whose biggest move of the offseason was dropping the pinstripes from their uniforms. A good start, but it’ll take more than that to bring the Twins back to relevance.

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Projected Lineup: SS Danny Santana, 2B Brian Dozier, 1B Joe Mauer, DH Kennys Vargas, RF Torii Hunter*, 3B Trevor Plouffe, LF Oswaldo Arcia, C Kurt Suzuki, CF Aaron Hicks

Projected Rotation: RHP Phil Hughes, RHP Ervin Santana*, RHP Ricky Nolasco, RHP Kyle Gibson, LHP Tommy Milone

* new additions

Starting with the Twins’ very first pitch of the 2015 season, which will most likely turn into a tape-measure home run off the bat of Ian Kinsler, the only story this year will be counting down the days until prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are wearing red, blue and Kasota Gold.

All the signs are there that this is a throwaway season. Knowing the team won’t be any good, the front office signed Torii Hunter in the hopes of selling a few extra tickets to fans excited to see the human aging process in action.

But it’s not all bad news for the Twins.

Last season saw the emergence of several young players who could very well be the future for the club. Shortstop Danny Santana broke out big time, hitting .319/.353/.472 in 101 games while posting an OPS+ identical to that of the Brewers’ Carlos Gomez. It wouldn’t hurt the kid to take a few more walks, but Santana’s skills with the bat are real. He could be a star in the very near future.

Brian Dozier is another guy who should be a major part of the Twins’ future. As rare as second basemen with power are, finding one who can play above-average defense too is almost unheard of. And possibly even more important than the homers or the fancy glove work, Dozier knows how to take walks. His 89 free passes last year ranked third in the American League. That type of multi-faceted threat is someone the Twins need to hold on to for a while.

With Santana entering just his second year in the big leagues, and Dozier having just signed a four-year extension with the team, the Twins look to be set up the middle for a long time.

The starting rotation is where Minnesota needs help. The Twins’ 5.06 ERA from starting pitchers was the worst mark in baseball last year.

They attempted to help right the ship by signing Ervin Santana to a four-year deal this offseason. This was not a bad move by any means—Santana is a dependable veteran who throws quality games and generally stays healthy, but he won’t reverse the Twins’ pitching fortunes overnight.

So they may enlist the help of some other guys to help get them back to respectability.

Alex Meyer, a big, tall right-hander who lights up the radar gun, should graduate from the minors by midseason. He has the type of stuff to put up big strikeout numbers—in 27 starts last season in Triple-A, he averaged 10.6 K’s per nine innings. He’s definitely a part of the Twins’ long-term plan, and the sooner they can get him up to the big leagues to start paying dividends, the better.

Trevor May had a brief stint with the Twins last year, and he was terrible. But there’s still hope for the once-highly touted prospect. In 18 starts with Triple-A Rochester last year, he posted a 2.85 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP. I’m sure the organization will have no problem chalking up last year’s bump in the road to May adjusting to big league hitting, so expect him to get a chance this season to redeem himself.

It won’t be this season, but some mix of the names I’ve mentioned will elevate the Twins back into contention within a few years. For now, they’ll have to settle for last place in a very tough division.

Projected Finish: 73-89, Fifth place in AL Central

New York Mets 2015 Season Preview

This is one of a series of posts in which I will be breaking down every team in baseball. I am by no means a credible source—merely a casual fan who knows a little about baseball and would like to share my observations.

Today we look at the Mets, who have finally gotten one prized young starter back from Tommy John surgery, only to see another one go under the knife. Such history repeating itself might be a sign that another disappointing season is in store.

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Projected Lineup: CF Juan Lagares, 2B Daniel Murphy, 3B David Wright, 1B Lucas Duda, RF Michael Cuddyer*, LF Curtis Granderson, C Travis d’Arnaud, SS Wilmer Flores

Projected Rotation: RHP Matt Harvey, RHP Jacob deGrom, RHP Bartolo Colon, LHP Jon Niese, RHP Dillon Gee

* new additions

Matt Harvey is back, ladies.

And he’s ready to write the next chapter in his up-to-now brilliant career.

He’ll be on a loose innings limit that manager Terry Collins wouldn’t put a number on, but it will probably mean shorter starts, and an overall cap in case the Mets make the playoffs (so, basically it’ll just mean shorter starts).

Harvey, however, has been dominating this spring as if nothing ever happened. Through his first four spring starts, he’s posted a 1.26 ERA with only one walk allowed in 14.1 innings.

What does all this mean for the regular season? You can expect vintage Harvey on the mound, and vintage New York fans expressing their dissent whenever Collins trots out of the dugout to lift Harvey in the sixth inning of a shutout.

Following him, the Mets have Jacob deGrom, the reigning Rookie of the Year. He won the award because he caught fire down the stretch last year, culminating in an absurd September in which he struck out 38 batters in just 27 innings, with a 1.67 ERA to boot. If he picks up anywhere close to where he left off, the Mets are in good shape.

The general rule with pitchers is that you usually want to have more of them than you need, just in case something bad happens. Well, a couple weeks ago, something bad happened.

The Mets lost Zack Wheeler to a torn elbow ligament, and he’ll be out for the season. This was a huge blow for the club, but the silver lining is that the Mets were prepared to withstand such a loss. Having been operating with a surplus of starters, they’re now able to add Dillon Gee to the rotation in Wheeler’s spot, helping mitigate the damage.

It’s not perfect, and they’ll miss Wheeler’s production, but credit the Mets for being proactive. The last thing they wanted was a repeat of last year, when they were forced to use guys like Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jenrry Mejia in starting roles, which didn’t end well.

If Gee doesn’t pan out, the Mets also have top prospect Noah Syndergaard, who will begin the season in Triple-A, but will soon be knocking on the door to the big leagues.

The bullpen was actually pretty good last season, mostly due to a league-leading 80% inherited runner strand rate, which is an interesting stat—because it could indicate that these guys were really clutch in getting out of jams—or that they were just incredibly lucky. In either case, the Mets have some intriguing arms. Closer Jenrry Mejia, in addition to having the absolute best hair in baseball (deGrom is second), really settled down when they moved him out of the rotation and into the ‘pen last year, putting up a 2.72 ERA as a reliever.

The bullpen will also be adding depth midseason, as they expect to get ex-closer Bobby Parnell back from Tommy John.

Turning to the offense now, the only real acquisition the Mets made this winter was signing Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer should take over in right field, pushing Curtis Granderson over to left. Cuddyer has a better arm than Grandy, so putting him in right gives the Mets a slightly better outfield alignment. But the importance of the corner guys is relative anyway, since center fielder Juan Lagares will catch literally everything between the foul lines.

The only question about Cuddyer is whether he can bounce back from an injury-riddled 2014. The Mets are counting on him for a full season, because any missed time means that John Mayberry Jr. will become an everyday player, which is one of the seven signs of the apocalypse.

As always, the success of the offense centers on David Wright. He might not be the player he once was, but he needs to do better than he did last year, when he posted career lows in just about everything.

Hopefully 2015 will be different. Now that the league knows Lucas Duda is a genuine power threat, Wright will see a lot more fastballs batting ahead of him. He needs to capitalize on those opportunities.

The Mets should see slightly more success than they have in recent years, but I don’t think they’re quite there yet. It will take another year or two of maturation for their young pitchers, and a year in which their ace is not on a strict innings limit. Once Wheeler recovers and the gang is back together, the world will finally get to see what these kids are made of.

Projected Finish: 79-83, Third place in NL East

Cincinnati Reds 2015 Season Preview

This is one of a series of posts in which I will be breaking down every team in baseball. I am by no means a credible source—merely a casual fan who knows a little about baseball and would like to share my observations.

Today we look at the Reds, who aside from a few bright spots, are coming off an injury-plagued, forgettable year. Second-year manager Bryan Price has quite a task on his hands to get these guys back into contention, but if they can stay healthy, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to do it.

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Projected Lineup: CF Billy Hamilton, 3B Todd Frazier, 1B Joey Votto, C Devin Mesoraco, RF Jay Bruce, 2B Brandon Phillips, LF Marlon Byrd*, SS Eugenio Suarez*

Projected Rotation: RHP Johnny Cueto, RHP Homer Bailey, RHP Mike Leake, RHP Anthony DeSclafani*, RHP Jason Marquis*

* new additions

The Reds are not a bad team.

Repeat that with me. The Reds are not a bad team. Write it on the chalkboard over and over like Bart Simpson until the message sinks in.

So much went wrong for the Reds last season that you can hardly blame them for the poor finish: Aroldis Chapman took a liner to the face. Joey Votto missed more than half the season. Ryan Ludwick played in Major League Baseball games. All these things normally spell doom for a team, but the Reds actually managed quite well despite their unfortunate circumstances.

In fact, their pitching was nothing short of phenomenal.

Let’s start with Johnny Cueto, who had a pitching season for the ages last year.

First of all, he won 20 games for a sub-.500 team, the first guy to do that since R.A. Dickey in 2012. He also led the National League in hits per nine innings as well as total innings pitched, the first guy to do that since Greg Maddux in 1994. And he did all that while pitching in Cincinnati, in one of the biggest bandbox ballparks in the league!

With Johnny Cueto anchoring the staff, the rest of the guys should fill the 2-5 slots with quality.

Keep an eye on Mike Leake in particular, because I think he’s on the cusp of an All-Star season. He’s been pitching a lot deeper into games, and finished sixth in the NL in total innings pitched last season. If he can continue to improve, he’ll be a solid #2 starter.

Having the best closer in the game doesn’t hurt, either—Aroldis Chapman struck out more than half the batters he faced last year. With him closing out games, and a halfway-decent group of starters, the pitching will always keep the Reds in ball games.

The offense is where they need some work.

Billy Hamilton is kind of a crap shoot. He’s deadly when he gets on base, but more often than not he either strikes out or hits a weak fly ball to the outfield.

And therein lies my big question for Billy Hamilton: If you’re the fastest guy in baseball, why are you hitting fly balls?

Anybody who’s seen Major League will tell you that for fast guys, be they Hamilton or Willie Mays Hayes, it’s better to drop down a grounder and leg out the infield single. But Hamilton must not have seen that movie. His ground ball to fly ball ratio is just 0.73:1, which is well below the Major League average. That means he’s hitting a higher percentage of fly balls than most players in baseball, a pool which includes all the big home run guys—i.e., the players who actually should be hitting fly balls.

If Hamilton makes that slight adjustment at the plate, that alone could get the team’s offense back on track. Todd Frazier, coming off of a breakout year, will benefit by seeing better pitches to hit. Joey Votto and Devin Mesoraco will have more RBI opportunities, and just like that, one cog activates the entire big red machine.

You’ll notice an absence of Zack Cozart in my projected starting lineup. Generally, when a guy is bad enough to be the worst qualifying hitter in baseball by OPS+, management should ask themselves why he’s a qualifying hitter. I expect Cozart to receive much less playing time this year, especially with newcomer Eugenio Suarez in the fold.

The Reds are built to win now. Cueto is an impending free agent, and I don’t see the Reds putting together any type of playoff run unless he’s involved. Depending on how they stand at the trade deadline, look for the Reds to either go all-in and add help, or to cut their losses and trade Cueto.

Projected Finish: 83-79, Third place in NL Central

Seattle Mariners 2015 Season Preview

This is one of a series of posts in which I will be breaking down every team in baseball. I am by no means a credible source—merely a casual fan who knows a little about baseball and would like to share my observations.

Today we look at the Mariners, who have repeatedly been on the cusp of contention, but haven’t actually made the playoffs since 2001. This year they’re looking to build on a hopeful 2014, and they may finally have the players to put together a real October run.

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Projected Lineup: CF Austin Jackson, RF Seth Smith*, 2B Robinson Cano, DH Nelson Cruz*, 3B Kyle Seager, 1B Logan Morrison, C Mike Zunino, LF Dustin Ackley, SS Brad Miller

Projected Rotation: RHP Felix Hernandez, RHP Hisashi Iwakuma, LHP James Paxton, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP J.A. Happ*

* new additions

The Mariners missed the playoffs by one game last season, a margin that will be a rallying point for the team this year. There will be no excuse for anyone to not give 100% to every game, because any game could be the one that loses you a playoff spot.

You can use that, Lloyd McClendon. That one’s free.

The offense was the weak spot last year, a fact which is not arguable. The Mariners’ .676 OPS ranked dead last in the AL. That they were still able to win 87 games with an offense like that is a borderline miracle.

So the M’s gave their offense a boost by adding Nelson Cruz. Generally, any time you can add a 40-homer guy to your team without losing anybody else in the process, it’s a good idea. Even though Cruz won’t hit 40 again—he’ll probably end up with something closer to 25-30 now that he’s playing in Seattle—he makes the lineup infinitely more dangerous.

Just take a second to appreciate this: The Mariners’ lineup now features one of the greatest on-base guys in all of baseball (Robinson Cano) ahead of elite power from both the right side (Cruz) and the left side (Kyle Seager). You could hardly achieve a stronger 3-4-5 than that bunch if you were playing MLB: The Show with “force trades” turned on.

The rest of the offense is built on platoons, with Seth Smith sharing time with Justin Ruggiano in right, while Rickie Weeks will occasionally spell Dustin Ackley in left. All of these guys are established veterans worthy of starting spots, giving the M’s a level of depth of which most teams would be envious.

Pitching hasn’t been a problem for the Mariners, nor should it be as long as Felix Hernandez is the ace of the staff. He had a career year last season, which is saying something for a guy with a career like his. He even topped his own numbers from his Cy Young-winning 2010 season in the categories of ERA, FIP, WHIP, H/9, HR/9, BB/9, K/9, total K, and wins. Going forward, there is no reason why you should expect anything different from a guy who is still only 28 years old, and in the prime of his career.

Possibly due to Hernandez’ dominance, the pitcher following him in the rotation is one of the more underrated stars in the game. Hisashi Iwakuma quietly does his thing every fifth day for the M’s, throwing strikes, upsetting hitters’ timing with that weird leg thing, and generally being one of the more effective pitchers in the game. He posted a lower WHIP in 2014 (1.05) than Cy Young winner Corey Kluber, if that tells you anything.

The rotation also includes two youngsters, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker, who are each entering their second season at the big league level. Paxton established himself in the second half of last season as a dependable member of this rotation, while Walker toiled a bit in the minors. Don’t be fooled, however—Walker’s struggles were partly due to a shoulder injury he suffered early last season. Look for him to return strong this year, with the same overpowering stuff he’s always had.

The Mariners have a team that is very capable of going deep in the playoffs. But as their fans will tell you, it’s getting there that’s the hardest part.

Projected Finish: 93-69, First place in AL West, American League Champions

Texas Rangers 2015 Season Preview

This is one of a series of posts in which I will be breaking down every team in baseball. I am by no means a credible source—merely a casual fan who knows a little about baseball and would like to share my observations.

Today we look at the Rangers, a team that looks like they’ll be at the mercy of the injury bug for the second straight season. Will they ever catch a break?

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Projected Lineup: CF Leonys Martin, SS Elvis Andrus, RF Shin-Soo Choo, 3B Adrian Beltre, 1B Prince Fielder, DH Mitch Moreland, LF Jake Smolinski, 2B Rougned Odor, C Robinson Chirinos

Projected Rotation: RHP Yovani Gallardo*, LHP Derek Holland, RHP Colby Lewis, LHP Ross Detwiler*, RHP Nick Tepesch

* new additions

The Rangers received news of the worst kind this spring.

Their ace pitcher, Yu Darvish, couldn’t shake the inflammation that occurred in his elbow late last season, and went under the knife. Tommy John surgery.

Recovery time: 12-18 months.

Recovery time for the Rangers’ fan base: indeterminate. Could be years.

What a blow this is to an ailing group of loyal fans who have suffered far more hardships than they deserve. 2014 saw the Prince Fielder season-ending neck injury, a Derek Holland knee injury, and questions about whether Jurickson Profar is still alive. Now there is nothing left but for Rangers fans everywhere to shout, “WHY CAN’T WE HAVE NICE THINGS?!”

But I suppose you could call this good news: the Rangers would’ve been a long shot to make the playoffs this season anyway, regardless of whether Darvish was healthy. It’s not like this broke up a contending team.

The core of Texas’ lineup is strong, but aging. Adrian Beltre, who will turn 36 in April, is starting to see a dip in his power, with just 19 long balls last season. Granted, he’s still an exceptional offensive force, who even without his standard amount of homers last year managed to finish eighth in the league in OPS. Trends are powerful things, though—what was 19 homers last season may be just 12 this season, and before long he’ll just be a well-paid singles hitter in the middle of Texas’ lineup.

Prince Fielder is back in action, and he’ll be looking to have a comeback year after missing nearly all of 2014. I wouldn’t put too much stock into Fielder’s .247 average or the mere three homers he hit in 42 games last year. His neck problems had apparently been bothering him since back in his Tigers days, and if that’s the case, I’d be scared about what he can do now that he’s pain-free.

Outside of those two, there are a lot of unfamiliar names on the team, but a guy whose name you should learn is Carlos Peguero. As a non-roster invitee this Spring, he has had a strong showing thus far with a 1.300 OPS through nine games. He also tore up the Dominican Winter League a couple months ago, leading the league in homers while posting a .970 OPS. He’ll have a good chance to win an outfield spot for the big league team, possibly as the starting left fielder.

We all know the pitching staff is broken without Darvish, but new addition Yovani Gallardo helps mitigate the loss. Acquired from the Brewers in a trade in January, Gallardo is a consistent mid-rotation type starter who is the portrait of good health—he has started at least 30 games in every season since 2009. He should rack up plenty of innings for the Rangers and help save the bullpen from complete annihilation.

Derek Holland could also be a guy who steps up and takes on more of the load. His 2014 was mostly lost due to injury, but in six appearances towards the end of the year, and when absolutely no one was watching because the team was way out of contention, he posted a 1.46 ERA and averaged seven innings per start.

But the Rangers might have a hard time finding consistency in the rest of the rotation. Colby Lewis probably shouldn’t be in a major league rotation any more, but the Rangers will take his 5-plus ERA just to eat the innings. And Ross Detwiler hasn’t started a game since July of 2013.

In the bullpen, Tanner Scheppers will be reprising his role as set-up man in which he performed so well two seasons ago. The Rangers briefly tried to make him a starter, an experiment which failed miserably. The experiment is now over, say the Rangers, which is good news because it gives the bullpen back that eighth inning guy they were missing for all of last year.

Scheppers will be setting up for Neftali Feliz, one of the more underrated closers in the game who is still just 26 years old. The duo gives the Rangers a strong end game, as any lead making it into the eighth inning will now be in very good hands.

The Rangers won’t win a lot of games, but I’d like to at least be able to give them an “A” for participation this year. If they can stay healthy and play out the string, the fan base will be grateful they gave it an honest effort.

The playoffs? We’ll talk about that once Darvish is back.

Projected Finish: 72-90, Fourth place in AL West

Houston Astros 2015 Season Preview

This is one of a series of posts in which I will be breaking down every team in baseball. I am by no means a credible source—merely a casual fan who knows a little about baseball and would like to share my observations.

Today we look at the Astros, the long-time basement dwellers in the AL West who have quietly gained some respectability in recent years. While you weren’t looking, all their young minor league talent morphed into real, major league ballplayers. But are they good enough for a shot at a division title?

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Projected Lineup: 2B Jose Altuve, 3B Luis Valbuena*, RF George Springer, 1B Chris Carter, CF Colby Rasmus*, DH Evan Gattis*, C Jason Castro, SS Jed Lowrie*, LF Jake Marisnick

Projected Rotation: LHP Dallas Keuchel, RHP Collin McHugh, RHP Scott Feldman, LHP Brett Oberholtzer, RHP Roberto Hernandez*

* new additions

The Astros have a few areas needing improvement.

Now typically, when you know you have some problem areas, you go out and try to fix them. Say a girl dumps you because she says you’re a poor dresser. Wouldn’t you, before you tried to pursue another girl, maybe go out and buy some new clothes?

Not the Astros. The Astros’ two big issues last season were defense and strikeouts. Simple things. Easily fixable, especially when you have an entire offseason in which to fix them. But nope—the Astros went out and actually made themselves worse in both departments.

Let’s start with defense. There’s no charade here. The Astros aren’t trying to be one of the better defensive teams in the league. George Springer and Jose Altuve ranked among the worst last year at their respective positions. But to be fair, it isn’t Altuve’s fault that he doesn’t have the range of most second basemen. Remember that “vertically challenged” becomes “horizontally challenged” when diving for groundballs.

But let’s take a look at some of the newcomers to the team: Jed Lowrie is clinging to life as a big league shortstop. With his age and declining range, he’s probably better suited to play second base at this point in his career. And Evan Gattis, primarily a catcher throughout his career, will reportedly play either left field or first base, which means they’re counting on him to hit about two homers per game to make up for the number of runs he’ll give up by fielding.

And then there are the strikeouts. There were 19 guys in the Major Leagues last season who struck out in more than a third of their at bats (min. 300 plate appearances), and the Astros had three of them: Springer, Chris Carter and Jon Singleton. So what did they do to fix this? They retained all three of those guys, and added another one: Colby Rasmus, who joins his new teammates in staking the same dubious claim.

The upside to all this, despite all the apparent regression, is that these guys will mash. Chris Carter hit 37 home runs last year, and at age 28 his power should just now be peaking. Evan Gattis will hit 30 easily if he’s anything close to an everyday player. Every game for the Astros will be a waiting game until someone runs into one and blasts a homer 440 feet. And it’ll be fun to watch.

The pitching staff is among the more underrated in baseball. Dallas Keuchel rose from obscurity last year to give the Astros their first 200-inning season from a pitcher since Brett Myers in 2011. And they were quality innings, too; the lefty’s 2.93 ERA ranked seventh in the American League. If he continues that level of dominance, he could be in the Cy Young discussion.

Collin McHugh gets overshadowed by Keuchel’s beard, but in one short year in Houston, McHugh made clear his campaign to be co-ace of this team. He was almost unhittable down the stretch last year—in August and September, he posted a 1.77 ERA in ten starts. The Astros are hoping he can be from the right side what Keuchel gives them the left side, thus forming quite the one-two punch.

McHugh appears to be the real deal, but don’t forget that he hasn’t even pitched a full season in the majors yet. Let’s wait for him to get a little more time under his belt before we give him co-ace status.

The Astros also revamped their bullpen in a major way after their relievers posted an MLB-worst 4.80 ERA a season ago. From free agency they added Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek, solidifying their set-up corps and providing some insurance in case 36-year-old closer Chad Qualls starts pitching like a 36-year-old closer.

It’s safe to say the dark days are over for the Astros. They’ve got a few pieces in place, but it’ll be a couple more years before the prospects they’ve accumulated over the past few years are ready to help boost the team into contention.

Projected Finish: 82-80, Third place in AL West

Cleveland Indians 2015 Season Preview

This is one of a series of posts in which I will be breaking down every team in baseball. I am by no means a credible source—merely a casual fan who knows a little about baseball and would like to share my observations.

Today we look at the Indians. For several years Terry Francona’s boys have been striving to bring relevance back to Cleveland. Could this be the season they finally do it?

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Projected Lineup: CF Michael Bourn, SS Jose Ramirez, LF Michael Brantley, 1B Carlos Santana, RF Brandon Moss*, C Yan Gomes, 2B Jason Kipnis, DH Nick Swisher, 3B Lonnie Chisenhall

Projected Rotation: RHP Corey Kluber, RHP Carlos Carrasco, RHP Trevor Bauer, RHP Danny Salazar, LHP T.J. House

* new additions

The Indians achieved great individual success in 2014, with Corey Kluber winning the AL Cy Young award, and Michael Brantley finishing 3rd in MVP voting. However, it didn’t translate to team success, as the Indians stumbled to a third-place finish in the AL Central.

This season, they hope to improve on last year’s performance with more or less the same exact team. Sounds a bit like trying to squeeze a square peg into a round hole, but the Indians believe they have some cause for optimism.

It starts with the emergence of Brantley, the Indians’ rising star. He enjoyed a breakout year last year in which he put up 20 homers and 45 doubles. The doubles are important, because they indicate there might be even more untapped power in Brantley’s bat. Watch out for when some of those gap shots turn into over-the-fence shots this season.

In addition, the Indians need more production from Jason Kipnis. This is a guy who got MVP votes two seasons ago, when he swatted 17 homers to go with an .818 OPS. But last year he took a major step backward—he managed only six homers for the year, and his OPS dropped to .640.

A dream scenario for the Tribe is for Kipnis to return to his 2013 form, and be consistent enough that they can slot him at the top of the batting order. Currently, the top two spots in the lineup are occupied by Michael Bourn and Jose Ramirez, who have tons of speed, but neither of whom walk enough to be a real on-base threat. The pair combined for just 48 total walks last season, whereas when Kipnis is good, he can easily put up 70-plus.

Another guy the Indians are hoping lands on the right side of the hot-cold spectrum this year is Carlos Santana. If you look at his stats last year as a whole, they’re underwhelming: an MLB-leading 113 walks, but just a .231 batting average to go with it.

But this is where splits make things interesting. Let’s divide the season into thirds:

April/May: .159/.327/.301, 6 HR

June/July: .310/.415/.603, 14 HR

August/September: .225/.356/.382, 7 HR

As you can see, last summer Santana was pretty much the best player in the game. What’s more—his two-month hot streak was accompanied by a very reasonable .336 BABIP, indicating that it wasn’t due to an inordinate amount of luck. To put it very simply, he just started hitting the ball more effectively.

So who knows what the cause might’ve been for Santana’s huge swing in performance—the warmer weather, the end of the Indians’ experimenting with him playing third base, LeBron announcing his return to Cleveland—all we know is it happened, and the fact is that Santana can play at that level. That means there’s a very real possibility of him staying that hot for an entire season.

On the pitching side of things, the Tribe saw inspiring performances from Corey Kluber, who was exceptional the whole year but especially after the All-Star Break, when he posted a 1.73 ERA, and Carlos Carrasco, who finished the year with a 1.30 ERA in his final ten starts. Needless to say, the Indians’ rotation is constructed far better than that last sentence was.

However, the rotation did take a blow when it was announced that the newly-signed Gavin Floyd will be out indefinitely due to a stress fracture in his elbow. Now it’ll be up to the in-house guys to fill the void. T.J. House, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer certainly have the talent, but it’ll be up to them to put it together and be consistent for a full season, something none of them have been able to do yet at the major league level.

The Indians have some young talent that will surprise many people this season. However, without any major upgrades from last year’s team, don’t expect any surprises when it comes to them contending. A middle-of-the-pack finish in the strong AL Central is pretty much a guarantee.

Projected Finish: 80-82, Fourth place in AL Central